The race for the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket in Lagos State ahead of 2027 is gathering momentum, with internal party divisions now tilting the balance in favour of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat.

Political observers say a deepening crisis within the influential Mandate Group has weakened opposition structures, giving Hamzat a strategic edge over other contenders.

Why It Matters

The outcome of the APC primaries scheduled for May 18, 2026 could determine the next governor of Nigeria’s commercial hub.

Lagos remains a critical political stronghold, and decisions within the party often shape broader national political dynamics.

Key Contenders in Focus

Three major figures are currently shaping early calculations:

Obafemi Hamzat – Lagos Deputy Governor

Akinwunmi Ambode – Former Governor

Tokunbo Abiru – Serving Senator

While all three remain influential, analysts say Hamzat’s alignment with dominant party structures may prove decisive.

Power Blocs Driving Lagos Politics

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, two major blocs have shaped APC politics in Lagos:

Justice Forum

Mandate Group

These blocs act as political gatekeepers, often determining which aspirants secure backing from party leadership, including President Bola Tinubu.

Historically, securing support from at least one bloc has been crucial for any serious governorship aspirant.

Mandate Group Crisis Deepens

The Mandate Group, once a dominant force, is now grappling with internal divisions following:

The exit of Rauf Aregbesola

The death of Adebayo Osinowo

Leadership struggles between factions linked to Abdullahi Enilolobo and Lagos Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa have further fragmented the bloc.

This division has reduced its influence in candidate selection and weakened its bargaining power.

Justice Forum’s Growing Influence

In contrast, the Justice Forum has strengthened its position, attracting key figures such as:

James Faleke

The bloc reportedly dominated recent local government elections and political appointments, reinforcing its control within the party.

Hamzat’s Strategic Advantage

With strong backing from the Justice Forum and a divided Mandate Group, Hamzat is seen by insiders as the frontrunner.

“At the moment, the Justice Forum is the only bloc that can confidently claim it has the machinery to deliver,” a party source said.

Another insider added:

“The Mandate Group is divided, and that has consequences.”

Observers say this has created a situation where Hamzat appears “almost unopposed” structurally, despite the presence of other aspirants.

Challenges Facing Rivals

Ambode’s Hurdles

Former governor Akinwunmi Ambode faces political and religious considerations.

“Being a Christian, his candidature may suffer a setback as some stakeholders prefer a Muslim candidate,” a party source noted.

There are also concerns about his independence in office during his previous tenure.

Abiru’s Long-Term Implications

For Tokunbo Abiru, analysts say his potential two-term tenure could disrupt long-term succession planning within the party.

Tinubu’s Role

Despite current alignments, the final decision may still rest with President Bola Tinubu.

Historically, he has:

Backed dominant blocs

Intervened when strong alternatives emerge

“Tinubu has gone against blocs before, but only when there was a strong alternative,” another insider said.

No Official Endorsement Yet

APC leaders have dismissed claims of a consensus candidate.

The party’s national chairman Nentawe Yilwatda said members would be allowed to vote freely if consensus fails.

Similarly, Lagos APC chairman Cornelius Ojelabi denied any endorsement from the presidency.

What’s Next

As the countdown to May 18 begins:

Alliances are expected to shift

Negotiations will intensify

Last-minute decisions could reshape the race

For now, however, Hamzat appears closest to securing the APC ticket.

Credit: Adapted from The Guardian and Goldmyn TV

Stakeholders across Lagos Mainland have endorsed Honourable Prince Abdul Akeem Animashaun as their consensus candidate for the House of Representatives.

They also called for the zoning of the seat to Ebute Metta West, describing the move as necessary to address decades of political marginalisation.

The endorsement was announced at a joint press conference attended by political leaders, community representatives, and grassroots stakeholders from Ebute Metta West, Ebute Metta East, and Yaba.

Why it matters

Speakers at the event said Ebute Metta West has not held the House of Representatives seat since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.

They argued that most elective and appointive positions have been concentrated in Yaba and Ebute Metta East, leaving Ebute Metta West underrepresented.

According to the stakeholders, the imbalance risks weakening unity within the constituency and could affect party cohesion ahead of future elections.

Stakeholders demand “justice, equity, and fairness”

Central to the resolution was a call for political zoning based on fairness.

“The endorsement of Prince Abdul Akeem Animashaun reflects a shared commitment to fairness, political stability, and inclusive governance,” the stakeholders said.

Leaders from Yaba and Ebute Metta East backed the demand, describing it as a “corrective step” to restore balance in representation.

Community voices back candidate

Support for Animashaun cut across different groups, including youths, traditional leaders, and religious figures, according to organisers.

Comrade Dosugan Caleb, representing the Makoko waterfront community, linked the endorsement to unresolved local issues.

He pointed to a disputed waterfront reclamation project dating back to 2020 and ongoing legal battles involving residents, authorities, and a private developer.

He said the community hoped Animashaun would prioritise their concerns if elected.

Mrs Bolingo, a resident of Yaba, said past representatives had failed to meet expectations.

She added that the constituency needed “accountable leadership that reflects the people’s needs.”

Engineer Akamu Ganiu from Ebute Metta West described Animashaun as “a credible leader” with a record of grassroots engagement.

Other supporters, including Mrs Helen Ilegbodu and Hon Samson Akanni Sambakiu, cited his legal background and public service experience as reasons for their backing.

Push for unity across Lagos Mainland

Speakers repeatedly stressed the need for unity across the three divisions of Lagos Mainland.

They said collective action would be key to achieving equitable representation and sustainable development.

The stakeholders urged party leaders and relevant authorities to respect the zoning demand, describing it as a “decisive push for justice, fairness, and democratic progress.”

What’s next

Political observers say the endorsement could shape party primaries and influence voter sentiment ahead of the next general elections.

Attention is now expected to shift to how party leadership responds to the zoning call and whether consensus can be maintained.

Political Insight

Analysts note that zoning arrangements are a recurring feature in Nigerian politics, often used to manage diversity and maintain balance within constituencies.

However, they warn that disputes over zoning can also trigger internal party conflicts if not carefully managed.

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, has dismissed the reported suspension of Atiku Abubakar and Babachir Lawal as “callous” and politically motivated.

What happened

In a statement issued on Thursday, Eze described the alleged suspension by a faction of the African Democratic Congress in Adamawa State as illegitimate.

He argued that the move was driven by “hunger-driven sycophants and enemies of democracy.”

“The purported suspension of Atiku, and Babachir is a callous act by a few ADC hunger-driven sycophants and enemies of democracy in Adamawa State.”

Eze insisted that no group within the party has the authority to suspend the former vice president, describing Atiku as a dominant political figure in Adamawa State.

Why it matters

The development highlights growing tensions within opposition ranks and raises concerns about internal party stability ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Political analysts say disputes like this could weaken opposition parties at a time when they are expected to present a united front against the ruling government.

Eze’s claims against APC

Eze accused President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of attempting to destabilise opposition figures.

“Attempting to destabilize opposition politicians using INEC and the Judiciary to meddle into the internal affairs of political parties is a sign of a drowning goon, who is afraid of competitive election.”

He further alleged that key institutions, including Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), were being used to influence political outcomes claims that have not been independently verified.

Political context

Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s former vice president and a veteran opposition figure, has maintained strong political influence, particularly in Adamawa State.

Eze described him as:

“A political institution and beacon of democracy in Nigeria… no living individual or group can make Atiku irrelevant in the politics and culture of Adamawa State.”

The statement also questioned the legitimacy of the factional leadership reportedly behind the suspension.

Industry and public reactions

While the ADC has yet to issue an official unified response, political observers note that factional disputes are not uncommon in Nigerian party politics.

Some analysts warn that prolonged internal crises could reduce the credibility of opposition parties in the eyes of voters.

Others argue that such controversies may reflect broader struggles for control and influence ahead of the next election cycle.

What’s next

There has been no official confirmation from Atiku Abubakar or Babachir Lawal regarding the alleged suspension.

Political watchers expect further clarification from the ADC’s national leadership and possible legal or party-level resolutions in the coming days.